Sunday, June 19, 2005

Election '08 -- Stage 1

Well, others have beat me to the punch. People are lining up candidates for the 2008 presidential election, just three years away. My friend the CIB has already thrown her support to U.S. Senator Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1988. But so did all the other Democrats that year (Michael Dukakis and my hubris-filled tragic hero Gary Hart).

Someone with GOP tendencies also thought it would be cute to write "Jeb Bush in 2008" on my doormat and newspaper, still on the porch because I was out of town. I have my suspicions because I don't know many people foolish enough to scrawl such a slogan.

Throw all the support you want at Joe Biden but he ain't gonna make it. I'll bet the CIB a cocktail of her choosing. Ditto for Jeb, the Bush everyone thought would inherit the legacy of Prescott and Poppy. Alas, no. Jeb has several albatrosses around his neck: Schiavo, Elian, hurricanes, a crappy and unpopular education reform package, and of course the 2000 presidential fiat.

I don't know who will win the nominations for either major party, but I know it won't be Biden or Bush. Biden is running for Secretary of State and I doubt the people would elect a third Bush in 20 years. Jeb would be smart to sit this one out to avoid looking like a patsy for his brother. But you never know what could happen.

Here are my contenders:

For the Democrats, in order of likelihood to be nominated:
  • U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, also a former governor
  • Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, also a former Congressman and ambassafor to the United Nations.
  • Gov. Mark Warner of Virgina, a statewide Democrat from Virginia has to make anyone's list
  • U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, the former president's wife
  • Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, now working with a foundation to reduce poverty
  • U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware -- I guess if a governor of Arkansas can do it, so can a Senator from tiny Delaware, the credit capital of America
  • U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts -- but is he used goods?
  • The other 41 Democrat U.S. Senators, all of whom have entertained presidential ambitions -- they're Senators after all
  • Wild Cards: Former Sen. Bob Kerrey, president of the New School in New York but recently a 9/11 Commissioner; Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, a former DNC chair; U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, but probably just for vice president if at all.

For the Republicans, in order of likelihood to be nominated:
  • U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who ran unsuccessfully in 2000 and has been paying his dues ever since
  • Former U.S. House Speaker New Gingrich of Georgia, who has a book out and is making plenty of networking connections on the book tour
  • Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the Mormon son of a political dynasty who needs a legislative win or the voters to overturn same-sex marriage in his superliberal state
  • U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania -- dude, he is so on the ticket because of his super-Christian beliefs that rally the Religious Right
  • U.S. Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Majority Leader -- not likely to win because of legislative baggage
  • Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, who has stealthily climbed her way to the top by being loyal and having Teflon coating
  • Wild Cards: Vice President Dick Cheney, bad ticker or not, the conservatives adore him; U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, a maverick who makes a lot of sense; U.S. Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio, also a former governor whose credentials can't be tarnished by a break with the Bushies; Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, only if the Consitution gets changed.
-- Wenatchee, Wash.

8 comments:

Dr Pezz said...

What?! No Dino Rossi?!

Anonymous said...

ahahahahahaha good one drpezz you're so funny. What was the punchline again!?

Dr Pezz said...

Ah, Adam. --sigh--

So predictable. Where's the "She's not my governor line?" How about an insight into your picks?

Anonymous said...

She's my governor. I'm not happy about it and I'm not happy about her turning this state into her empire, but I'm not going to deny it.

It's hard for me to pick who I would favor for either parties. Hillary Clinton would be worse case scenario (inefficient government run nationalized healthcare). I know that much for sure.

Dr Pezz said...

Hillary seems to have support from the conservatives with it, though I don't think she would win regardless.

Empire??? Come on.

Loganite said...

I forgot to add former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He absolutely has the list of accomplishments to be a viable candidate. He would totally innoculate the R's against any NY effort from Hillary Clinton, perhaps even being able to grab the blue-state's hefty slate of electoral votes.

He is far from clean, though. Yes, he was a federal prosecutor who took on the mob. Yes, he was a big city mayor whose get-tough policies led to a kinder, gentler New York City with decreased crime, but let's also not forget that the Democrat-sponsored initiative to put more cops on the streets (thank you, President Clinton and Democrats in Congress) played a part in that reduction, too. Yes, he led a city in crisis on Sept. 11, 2001, and in the days after.

Giuliani is also someone who made life for his ex-wife miserable, declaring at a press conference he planned divorce her. How very Newt Gingrich-like. He is not very conservative on social issues, at least he was not as mayor. And, his ego is WAY too big for him to take second seat on anyone's ticket. If he's in, it is to win.

Also, the R's have a deep bench of governors, from which to draw, including Haley Barbour of Mississippi, a former RNC chair; Mark Raicicot of Montana, also a former RNC chair and Bush campaign chair; Bill Owens of Colorado; and of course, George Pataki of New York, who is definitely looking to move from Albany.

For the Dems, I forgot to mention Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, who this week was named head of the Democratic Leadership Council, a group of centrist "New Democrats" whose most notable alumni are Bill Clinton and Al Gore. Vilsack was a VP short-lister in 2004, and he could absolutely use this post as a chance to get his name out to the people. Being governor of a state that holds the first primary means he has a leg up in any straw poll next year, too.

By the way, the DLC's "New Democrat of the Week" this week is Washington Governor Christine Gregoire.

-- L.

Anonymous said...

How are tax hikes, bigger government, more government regulations and giving her friends in office pay raises not a step toward building an empire?

Dr Pezz said...

Sounds like she and Bush should team up! According to you they are doing the same things.