SCOTUS Watch '05

Well, we are in for a long, hot summer. Wow! Sandra Day O'Connor set the nation's capital on end when she announced her retirement from the United States Supreme Court, effective when her successor is nominated and confirmed. That could be a while.

President Bush has a chance to do something that has not been done in 11 years and could have an impact well into the 2030s, if the length of service of current Justices is an indicator, which, of course, it is.

There is a whole lot of SCOTUS news that summarizes the situation far better than I could ever hope to do. Try the Blog synthesis at Slate or The Washington Post. Slate also has good stuff on the possible "short list" to replace a retiring Justice. In typical Slate fashion, there is also an edition of The Explainer that, well, explains how this process will work. That is the best feature of Slate, I think.

OK, so some of the hot points on the SCOTUS (I like writing that) appointment:

• How conservative will the nominee be? A year ago, everyone thought Bush would appoint Alberto Gonzales if he had a chance. Gonzales was a justice of the Texas Supreme Court, and has been exceptionally loyal to W. But the hard-core righties don't like Gonzales, who is moderate on some social issues, including abortion. If Bush wants a Hispanic, he might have better luck with the base, which expects a payback for granting him a second term, by appointing Emilio Garza, who has served on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals since 1991. Listen for the catchy phrase (also racist) that the neo-cons have been using: "Gonzales is Spanish for Souter". Basically, David Souter, whom President George H. W. Bush appointed to the court in 1990, was a moderate who all the conservatives thought was with them. Really, he has turned out to be on the moderate three and often with the liberals.
• What are the issues? Abortion. Duh. But also, gay rights (marriage, etc.), affirmative action, parental notification for minors to get abortions. If Gonzales is the pick, expect the USA PATRIOT Act and Guantanamo Bay prisoners to be prime attack points for the Democrats. Also, depending on the nominee, any cases he or she decided will be scrutinized for fodder by the minority party.
• When will this happen? Sounds like the president will wait at least a week until he returns from the G8 summit abroad. It has also been reported that Bush will try to put a name out there before Congress adjourns for the summer, which is in just a few weeks. It will be the top item for the Justice Committee after the break in September because the Court begins its term the first Monday in October.
• Who's playing? The pressure will be on Sen. Arlen Specter, the Judiciary Committee chair from Pennsylvania and a moderate, to shepherd the president's nominee through the process with the least amount of bruising. Look to Judiciary vets Pat Leahy of Vermont and John Kerry of Massachusetts for some fireworks. Barbara Boxer of California fired with both barrels at Gonzales during his attorney general hearings, and she will pull no punches, I imagine, on any Bush SCOTUS nominee.

Bottom line, my prediction: I think President Bush will pick a true conservative, probably not Gonzales (which would also require new hearings for an attorney general). This nominee will be confirmed by the full Senate and there will be wild hearings and a full-court press of a media campaign by all sorts of advocacy groups and quasi-politicians. Also, it is quite likely that Bush will soon also appoint a replacement for 80-year-old Chief Justice William Rehnquist. He won't hang on until the next presidential term in 2009, so it's a Bush appointment. That could prove to be a tough fight, but not as tough as this one since he is a conservative and would be replaced with a conservative. O'Connor's moderation could be replaced by a conservative, effectively tilting the court to the right.

Jeffrey Toobin and Jeff Greenfield quoted on CNN's NewsNight Friday that one person had said this nomination battle is the best thing that could happen to President Bush this week. His approval rating is down, but, they said, he stands up for what he believes and appointing a justice who is a true conservative will energize people and remind them why they voted for Bush. As an example, look at what has happened in the wake of the filibuster "truce": All of the blocked appointees have been confirmed.

In the end, it takes 51 votes, that's all. Sandra Day O'Connor was confirmed 99-0, but that is not about to happen for any Bush appointee. Bush, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee and the rest of the Senate Republican leadership will ensure that, barring some sort of self-destruction with personal pecadilloes, the initial nominee will be confirmed.

-- Peoria, Ariz.