Ten and counting

Just 10 days remain before what will surely be known as Black Tuesday around the Republican National Committee offices. Control of the House of Representatives will probably switch to the Democrats -- that is almost a foregone conclusion. The main question seems to be how wide the margin will be. Two major pollsters are indication somewhere between 18 and 30 seats will change hands. The Dems need just 15 to take control.

The Senate has been a horserace all summer and fall. A couple weeks ago, things looked very good for the Democrats. The last week has seen some of those races tighten. I speculate that the undecided or uncommitted voters have started deciding or committing. The Republican candidate they may have had doubts about before might not seem so bad after all, perhaps.

First local, then the nation:
In Washington's Senate race, Maria Cantwell sent a last-minute plea for more cash to keep her ads on the air in the final days of the campaign. An Oct. 19 poll shows her leading strongly, 51-42 over challenger Mike McGavick, the former insurance executive and former chief of staff to Sen. Slade Gorton. The last-minute cash call came just as McGavick announced that he was loaning his campaign $500,000 in cash to keep it afloat in the remaining days. Cantwell and McGavick are both millionaires, and a Seattle news article this week showed they are among similar company. I sent Cantwell $50 anyway, just because I like her so much.

In Washington's congressional races, one of the hottest in the nation is the 8th District seat held by moderate Republican Dave Reichert. He faces very stiff opposition form former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. The ads have been messing up the airwaves, with accusations of lying and inexperience and anything else that ad-makers think will stick. This one will definitely go down to the wire.

The state Democrats also think they can gain some ground in Eastern Washington. The 5th District seat held by Cathy McMorris of Spokane (and formerly by Speaker Tom Foley) is now in play. McMorris was overheard on a recent conference call to ask the speaker, Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho, to mention some of her good work on veterans affairs. Craig chairs the Senate Veterans Affairs committee. A reporter was accidentally placed on mute instead of having the call blocked while waiting for the conference call to begin last week. McMorris also said the race was tougher than she expected. The challenger is Okanogan farmer Peter Goldmark. He has a Ph.D. and developed a strain of wheat that is now farmed all over the inland empire. He also served as chair of the board of regents at Washington State University and as the head of teh state agriculture department. This is a man who would be great in Congress.

In my own 4th District, Doc Hastings still has not posted a single sign in Wenatchee that I have seen. The Democrats first sent an e-mail this week praising their chances to win with Burner and Goldmark. A later e-mail included Wright. I head a couple weeks ago that the campaign was pretty much broke, but I saw a sizable ad for Wright in the local paper this week, so perhaps there has been a recent infusion of cash. Meanwhile, there has been a strong letter-writing campaign, and I have seen a Wright letter several dayes recently. No letters have supported Hastings. However, Hastings is well-liked in the district, and he does not need to convince many voters to fill the box next to his name. The "R" is good enough. I only wonder if Hastings faced a stronger and more dynamic candidate if he would be sweating more now. Wright's low-key manner would make an election night victory even sweeter.

The nation:
Go with the devil you know maybe? That appears to be the case in Montana's Senate race, where incumbent Conrad Burns has been saddled with scandal over his dealings with Jack Abramoff. Burns trailed his Democrat challenger, John Tester, by a wide margin recently, but an Oct. 26 poll shows Tester leading just 51-47. Dems are counting on this race to move them closer to controlling the chamber.

Democrat challengers in Minnesota, Rhode Island, Ohio and Pennsylvania still lead with strong margins.

The races to watch continue to be New Jersey, where the polling has been a seesaw of activity, and Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. Each of those last three states is especially crucial and the Dems face an uphill battle. Holding New Jersey and winning just two of the other seats wins control. Yet, recent polling shows a statistical dead heat, perhaps due to the Republicans pumping money in there so they can have a small bright spot on election night.

Those three states have also been very much in the media the past week. In Missouri, a state ballot measure woud permit stem-cell research. The Democrat candidate supports that. So does actor Michael J. Fox, who filmed an ad for her, and he was shaking throughout due to his Parkinson's Disease. He was criticized heavily by Rush Limbaugh and others on the right for "faking it" but Limbaugh later apologized. It focused attention on the Show Me State, and people who support stem-cell research in Missouri might be enough to tip the scale in a very close election. I doubt this one will be resolved on Nov. 7.

In Tennessee, the Republicans aired a cheeky ad that made fun of Democrat Harold Ford's attendance at a Super Bowl party sponsored by Playboy magazine. The ad closes with a white woman winking at the camera, kissing the air and inviting the candidate to call her. Many on the left have criticized this as racist, though I have yet to see a clear explanation of just how. At the same time, I don't have a detailed understanding of race politics in the South, so perhaps just the implication that a white woman -- a call girl no less -- would go after a black man is racist. Perhaps it is also the coded language of the South, where people still might harbor prejudices and the ad hopes to capitalize on them. Again, this Senate race is back-and-forth, and I wonder if the Dems can really pull this one out. It seems less about whether a candidate will be a good Senator and more about who is white and who is not.

In Virginia, where Sen. George Allen is barely hanging on to a seat against challenger Jim Webb, the Navy secretary under President Reagan, the past has also surfaced again. Turns out Webb wrote a few novels and they contain some steamy passages. Allen is trying to capitalize on that. Don't go throwing stones -- the Republicans have their own steamy writers, including Second Lady Lynne Cheney. This race has really tightened in the last couple weeks, and I thought Allen would win despite all his "macaca" missteps. But in the remaining 10 days, Allen may just look desperate and a Democratic tide could be enough to send the not-quite-liberal Webb across teh Potomac to the Senate.

All in all, there are still a few days for Karl Rove and his machine to make some sort of October surprise. Yet, voters all over are already marking their ballots. I have mine on the kitchen counter, waiting for some big event that might change my position on one of the nonpartisan issues or on a ballot initiative. I pretty much know how I am voting, but I like to wait until election day to actually do it, even though all balloting in my county is by mail. Ten and counting -- I can hardly stand the tension.

-- Wenatchee, Wash.