A Democratic Senate?

For months, the polls nationwide have indicated that the Democrats' chance of regaining control of the House of Representative is the best this year since the GOP took power after the election of 1994. All summer, people said that the Senate was a different story. State by state, it looked like there were some strong candidates and some open seats and that maybe the Democrats would pick up a few seats but not enough to gain control of the chamber, currently 55 Republicans to 44 Democrats and one independent who caucuses with the Democrats. Basically, the idea of retaining all the Democrat seats plus picking up six seats meant the Democrats would have to run the table come Election Day.

Well, it looks increasingly likely that the scenario may just happen. Democrats running for re-election or against a Republican or in an open seat are up all across the country. Democrats are surging.

Part of the good news is that the open seats or seats with weak Republican incumbents are in states with strong Democrat energy or with voters that are fickle: Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Minnesota and Missouri among others.

Here in Washington state, Maria Cantwell won in 2000 by a slim margin of just a couple thousand votes. She has been a target for six years, and with state Republicans mad as heck after the 2004 gubernatorial recount where they also lost, Cantwell has been the number one Democrat to beat purely for vindictive reasons. Her opponent: a former insurance CEO who took a $28 million payout as he left the job, a job where he fired workers in order to "save the company." He's a former chief of staff to Slade Gorton, the moderate whom Cantwell sent into retirement six years ago. But Maria is a fighter and a shrewd politician. She carefully selected issues important to her constituents and doing what every freshman senator knows is priority number one: constituent services. Her issues are the environment, energy and workers. She has had to defend a pro-war vote to Washingtonians much more liberal than she, but so far everyone has fallen in line and Cantwell has led in the polls throughoutthe campaign season. Absent the Republican momentum that her opponent needed to fund his campaign and to energize the base, she'll get a second term.

Even in New Jersey, where Robert Menendez left his seat in the House to fill the vacancy left when John Corzine became governor. Memnendez has also faced some flak for a scandal, but a Sept. 30 poll has him up 44-41 over the Republican, Tom Kean Jr., the son of a very popular former governor (and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission).

Some other races have been prime targets for the Dems, too. It's been obvious for a while that Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum, the leader of the super-conservatives, and Montana's Conrad Burns, suffering under the weight of the Jack Abramoff scandal, would go down. That's just two Republicans of the six needed to win a majority.

Lately, though, Democrats in some of these other states have started to pick up a lot of momentum. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is walloping Mike DeWine in a state that often is a bellweather of the nation. Brown's up 45% to 42% in an Oct. 3 poll. Democrats in Ohio are energized and organized after the voting fiasco in 2004. The man responsible for President Bush's re-election victory via Ohio screw-ups is running for governor, and Ohioans are set on stopping him. I suspect turnout will be very heavy for an off-year election.

Just this week, in Missouri, State Auditor Claire McCaskill has edged ahead of incumbent Jim Talent. I predict she'll win this race. She has made stem-cell research a cornerstone of her campaign, and a ballot measure on that topic should fuel turnout in her favor. She also has won a statewide race more than once in a state not known for electing a lot of Democrats. In contrast, Talent won a special election against Jean Carnahan, who was appointed to fill the seat her late husband won in 2000 (ousting John Ashcroft). Essentially, he beat a non-candidate, so he has not truly been tested, and he has a poor record and unpopular party to defend.

In a year where every seat counts, the Democrats have also set their sights on Rhode Island and the seat held by Republican Lincoln Chaffee. He's essentially a Democrat, even announcing that he voted against President Bush in 2004. But he had a tough primary battle against the anti-tax candidate, and he had to run to the right. Now, his Democrat opponent, Sheldon Whitehouse, is up 46-40 in an Oct. 1 poll.

The Democrats' best chance for that sixth pickup seat looks like it will be Tennessee, a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Al Gore Jr. left in 1992. Harold Ford Jr., a son of a longtime Tennessee political family and a congressman himself, is the face of the new Southern Democrat. He faces Chatanooga mayor Bob Corker, and has raised far more than Corker has. A set of polls last week show Ford with a slight edge.

The Democrats have strong candidates in other states, such as Virginia, Nevada and Arizona, but it appears that unless the next month gets even worse for the Republicans, those Republicans will hold their seats. The most notable of those is George Allen in Virgina, hanging on with the slimmest of margins after public relations nightmares with the Confederate flag and a history of racist comments. It has been said that Allen has presidential ambitions and was looking past 2006 to the nomination process, but even if re-elected he will be so damaged and bruised that he won't be very attractive to many across the country. His brand of racism and good-ol'-boy politics may play well in Virginia, but I doubt he will be very appealing when standing on a stage next to fellow Republicans who are virtually revered (John McCain, Rudy Giuliani) or who have a huge presence (Newt Gingrich, Bill Frist).

Sure, there are 30 days till Election Day, and we all know that a lot can happen. The past week's events show that a scandal can break, gain momentum and be contained all in just seven days. The Republicans are down for the count. We'll see if the Democrats will see a total KO or if somehow the GOP can get back up on its already shaky legs.

I wrote months ago that this fall would be the most exciting election in years, and I think I was right.

-- Wenatchee, Wash.