Election battleground: 21 days to go

With every poll that is issued, the Republicans have got to just be sweating bullets. More and more, the individual congressional races seem competitive. A few months ago, there were maybe a dozen competitive districts. In the last few weeks, that number has more than doubled, and all the seats in play were with Republican incumbents. Today, my main electoral source has it up to as many as 50. Fifty!

It seems a foregone conclusion that we're just three weeks away from the night that will lead to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She's not my favorite Democrat, but I would sure be happy to see her slam a gavel down. Let alone the idea that oversight committees that would move forward with some much-needed investigations of the executive branch.

The Senate, though has been a completely different matter. Months ago it looked like the Dems would basically have to run the table, a prospect that seemed incredibly daunting. Today, the Dems seem poised to approach a majority and possible recapture control of the chamber. They need six additional seats to gain control.

They needed to keep their possibly vulnerable seats:
Washington: Check
Michigan: Check
Connecticut: Check (well, Lieberman will win but he'll still be a D.)

They needed to pick up open seats previously held by a Democrat:
Minnesota: Check
Maryland: Check

And they need to pick up seats in the areas where Republicans were vulnerable:
Rhode Island: Check
Pennsylvania: Check
Montana: Check

So it comes down to four key states: Ohio, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia

Word comes today in The New York Times that the Republicans are essentially bailing on Ohio, deciding that Sen. Mike DeWine can't pull it out against challenger Sherrod Brown. They want to concentrate their resources (mainly money) on the states where they absolutely need to win and think they still have a shot. Apparently, that is not Ohio. Or Rhode Island. Apparently, it comes down to just Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.

That's bad news all around. Those three races have each been tightening in the last few weeks, and the GOP has candidates that all have weaknesses and have been absolutely battered in the campaign so far. The best part is that the Dems need just two of these to take the Senate. Most likely that will be Missouri and Tennessee, where the incumbents are weakest. Virginia will be a tough challenge, but the trend is for a Democrat tide to come in on Election Day.

So for 21 days, expect to hear nothing but battleground reports from these three states. It's all about Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. If the Democrats can prove successful in those states, every shred of conventional wisdom will be revised. And come Nov. 9, the morning after, people will be talking like they were on the day after Election Day in 1994. I just hope Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don't stand in front of that lame picture of the Capitol with a banner reading "Under New Management" -- it's cheesy.

Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. Get ready to know them well.

-- Wenatchee, Wash.